"The mutual fund industry died from a thousand cuts --but it was Pimco who drew the first blade in 2012."

So writes Fortune contributor Joshua Morgan Brown in an article published yesterday and dated 10 years into the future -- March 1, 2022. That's a decade after the launch of the Pimco Total Return ETF (TRXT).

The ETF's birth "would henceforth be recognized as the Shot Heard 'Round Boston," he adds.

He writes that within one quarter of TRXT's launch, the ETF will turn the tides against mutual funds as advisors and pension fund managers realize that the small basis point cost difference between the Total Return Institutional Class Fund (48 basis points versus 52 basis points) and the Total Return ETF was "de minimis."

"And tens of billions of assets flowed from the former to the latter in an unstoppable torrent. After another quarter had gone by, the retail holders of Total Return A and C shares (which carry extra fees) rebelled against their brokers and demanded a switch, especially when the performance gap turned out also to be almost nonexistent," he writes.

Brown also predicts that DoubleLine, T. Rowe Price and Janus will launch ETF versions of their top funds. 

Edited by: HFD


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